BMI Industry View

BMI View: We currently maintain a short-term bearish outlook for the Iranian construction sector. Although official data has not yet been published, we estimate a contraction in the industry in both 2012 and 2013 at 1.6% and 1.0% respectively. This is the result of a challenging macroeconomic picture, international sanctions and a prohibitive business environment. We are, however, more optimistic over the medium-to-longer term as an improvement in economic conditions should bring some respite for the sector. As such, we expect moderate growth to return in 2014 at an estimated 1% in real terms and an average of 3.5% between 2015 and 2022.